Topic: Coronavirus outbreak

@Eel I never did trust the French.....

Morpheel will save us, where ever he is.

@NEStalgia Well, and it certainly doesn't help that a disease known for killing the elderly spread around a country filled with old people.

There's no containing this. It's everywhere. Trump's European travel ban is pointless. The best thing we can do at this point is federally ensure paid sick leave (for obvious reasons), ramp up production of these tests to get a better idea of which populations are getting hit the hardest (and try to shore up resources for the hardest hit areas), limit movement between states as much as possible, encourage social distancing, and constantly raise awareness of problem habits like face touching and a lack of hand-washing.

I wouldn’t trust Morpheel. I hear he works for Big Bidet, in their Lake Hylia facilities.

@NEStalgia I don't think the USA is doing a much better job of it. In fact, the complete opposite. Trump is already ridiculed over here for doing a 180 concerning the virus, seeing as he initially kept waving away any and all concerns.

New numbers have now come in:

• total number of infected worldwide: 127.000 known infected, and counting
• 2200 additional infected in Italy alone

And erm... my current place of residence is about to go into lock down until the end of the month...
Any and all events with more than a 100 people present are being canceled, so not just concerts and sports matches, but also live TV shows and such. People are advised to either spread their work more, or to work from home, and to minimize usage of public transport. Well, at least I'll run far less risk of having yet another bus-related incident...

@Octane There wasn't a "North America" by name when the Black Death hit, so, yeah, "America" isn't really part of a contrast and compare - it's a European event that happened later. It wasn't a statement that the US does it "better" - there wasn't a US at the time and the US was constructed by Europe long after the plague was largely diminished. .

The first part, the Italian structure of architecture is close, lots of communal space and shared environments. Even simple things that many other countries would more often do at home - breakfast and coffee, etc, are much more commonly served in communal space there at cafes. The cafes tend to be elbow-space ordering and crowding close, and of course, hugs & kisses as standard greetings are still exceedingly common. Just tradition & custom and way of life. Hard to change, and not really desirable to change - it's part of the cultural identity. If it were different, it wouldn't be Italy anymore. But surprising it developed as tradition at all given that handling Black Death was a shaping part of the history there. Add that close quarter, close contact environment in to being the transportation gateway to Asia that would be exposed to this very quickly, before anyone was being very alert (probably before the truth came out of China), and it was always going to develop more rapidly and severely there than other locales.

@ThanosReXXX Clearly. Travel restrictions not having been in place in January was the predictable but colossal failure here. I'm not a fan of the politically specific finger pointing. I've never been on the Trump hate bandwagon, though that doesn't particularly mean I'm a fan either. I admit though, that his bumbling on this issue is of equal or worse comparison to that of the provincial Chinese government that bungled it originally. It's inconceivable to the point of tempting me to just jump in on the hate bandwagon after all. I didn't think that level of stupid was possible by anyone. That's not a political statement. I'm not on any side of the political fence or party movement. Just a statement of pure dumbfoundedness at that level of failure by anyone at all. He made the EXACT same mistake China did. Like copying the script verbatim. While neither fan nor critic, I thought he was certainly better than that.

Sadly the US won't do such a lockdown. Business first! The NBA and ESA can shut down but random functionaries in an office will do their 75 hours a week. ON TIME! Or else!

Even still, it's absurd and surreal, even to my pessimistic self, that suddenly this is the reality. And even more absurd that there was ample opportunity to prevent it and the world covered their eyes and plugged their ears.

@Ralizah Bwahahaha. I can't imagine any of that happening here. Plus "no face touching" is kind of a crazy proposition. How many times do you get something in your eye, have an itch that you don't even realize you're addressing? Let alone eating....restauraunts are the bulk of retail here at this point. People are eating out constantly. Gyms are the big rage. I can't see people not eating out. I'm certainly not seeing a slowdown yet. And this is in a locale that has had at least one incident already (and any related ones are weeks away from knowing.)

The TP thing is because of Hawaii. Ya know, because it’s an island. Then people read Facebook. The same people that don’t wash themselves and also think any government can help them avoid this. Everyone keeps wanting to say “Title X” leader isn’t doing “Y”, when the only thing that can be done is clean yourself and don’t be disgusting.

@NEStalgia Of course, nobody expects people to stop face touching completely. The point is awareness raising. If you're consciously trying to touch your face less, you're probably also more likely to hand-wash more often, or to sanitize your hands more often. You're probably also more careful about what surfaces you touch out in the world.

I don't think people need to completely stop eating out (because of course they won't), but the less often they go out, the better, and, certainly, the fewer large events happen, the better.

That messaging needs to happen now. It needed to happen weeks ago. Otherwise, enjoy the spectacle of entire cities being locked down, death panels being adopted when medical facilities in hot zones are overwhelmed, etc. It's happening in other countries. No reason it won't happen here. Especially in dense urban areas.

@Ralizah As a germophobe, that thinking escapes me, I think. I don't touch door handles whenever possible. I try not touching things, basically ever. The idea of "raising awareness" to me means "go hyper paranoid." Because somewhat paranoid is my default stance at all times.

Unfortunately most of us are stuffed near morons who are laughing it off and just living as normal. Or feigning "oh I'm concerned but I can't let it rule my life, whatever happens happens" then probably drag it around for the next 2 weeks and every last one of us gets it. I don't see anyway to make this better without mandatory lockdowns of everything starting immediately. This area is starting to turn into a pseudo hot zone. Not LA, but the numbers are into the double digits now supposedly. If it's 10, assume it's 1000 by 2 weeks from now.

I still say airlines should be grounded for the foreseeable future. Total shutdown. Worldwide. Essential/charter travel should be regulated. Not forever, just for this immediate time period. It should have happened a month ago. Not just foreign at this point, domestic as well. they keep doing things in a reactionary fashion. They close a few things wait to see if it gets better, then do the thing they should have done to begin with after it's too late.

@HobbitGamer Ohh is that where the TP thing started. So I was right. Facebook. Figures.

I think there's too much emphasis on "staying clean" going on. Yes, washing your hands helps if you picked it up from contact surfaces but it doesn't help the airborne primary transmission. Avoiding people does. Our society isn't set up to isolate from people.

It still concerns me that every time a new disease pops up, wen have to remind grown adult humans of basic hygiene. As someone who is both already immunocompromised AND gets injections that further suppress immune reactions (and has to spend some time in hospital waiting rooms for that), that's not fun I tell you.

@Ralizah My other favorite thing is all the people that believe diseases respect municipal borders. I keep hearing "well there's a dozen cases in that county, and 5 in that county and only 1 in this county, and none in that county so we're probably safe to go to gathering X.. ......you realize that both those counties are like eight minutes away by vehicle and most of the infected people were probably shopping in YOUR supermarket last week, right?

I mean if this is the level of stupid we're dealing with the media hasn't been sensational enough yet. People will use some data driven detail to justify the imaginary world they want to live in to almost no limit.

@Manah ouch. Even without a compromised system I'm paranoid setting foot in a drug store let alone actual medical facilities. Let alone everywhere else. Can't say I envy that position even in the best of times let alone now....

@NEStalgia Oh, don't get me wrong: I didn't want to do or imply any political finger pointing. It's just that this very thing was on the news today, and then they elaborated on how this might impact his chances in relation to the upcoming elections, because of how even his own backers/supporters may now see him because of this rather big f-up.

So, it wasn't to inspire you to jump onto the hate bandwagon, it was just me relaying something I saw on the news earlier today, and applying it to something you said earlier.

On a side note: have you actually ever been in Italy? And if so, where? You make it sound like all Italians eat breakfast and/or any other meal outdoors, which couldn't be further from the truth. In Italy, mama's (or the wife's) food is THE most important and coveted/respected, so whenever possible, most Italians will eat at home.

@1UP_MARIO Too soon...

I want to hear someone present the worst case scenario: what if the entire world just went about daily life as normal and disregarded the virus (other than researchers working on vaccines etc.) How would that play out? What would be the estimated mortality rate? I realise that in reality that's a massive unknown, but there must be some projections getting tossed about at WHO etc.

With most places now looking like they're going to take some pretty drastic action, at what point are they going to give the green light to return to normal? Will it be a new normal?

And in a world of nearly 8 billion people, can washing our hands every 10 minutes realistically be expected to do much?

@gcunit
1. More people get sick than the hospitals can handle. Potential societal collapse due to inefficient healthcare and limited resources. Death rate will probably skyrocket.
2. Speaking from experience (I've played Plague Inc.), it should revert back to the status quo once the number of new cases per day in certain areas in the single digits.
3. No. The virus mainly spreads through fluid droplets caused by sneezing. Our "T" zone is most important in this scenario, and while washing your hand every 10 minutes would be a small improvement, what really matters is not touching your face.

@NEStalgia In your case, I'm not sure any consciousness-raising is required. But most people aren't germophobes, and, until we have reason to think about it, don't think about the microscopic world of terror lurking everywhere around us.

I won't deny that I breathed a sigh of relief when I found out none of the nine cases in my state with situated in my county. Although, as of this morning, the number has officially doubled, and, as you point out, there's no evidence those people weren't infecting people in my county before their symptoms started manifesting.

I don't know why we make things hard for ourselves. We've seen at least two major countries come to a complete standstill in order to combat this, with others well on their way to that exact place. Why we think we're magically immune from the natural progression of this situation is a mystery to me.

Regarding Trump: there is a hate bandwagon for a good reason. The man is almost incomprehensibly unsuited to the position he currently occupies, and there's almost no doubt we'd be at least marginally better off if we had a competent politician in the oval office who hadn't spent weeks convincing his idiotic followers that this is nothing to be worried about re: COVID-19.

@1UP_MARIO LMAO Good post

@gcunit Currently the mortality rate is about 3-4% from people tested. There are probably many more walking around not tested, but it's the best estimate so far. Those numbers mostly come from China, because they have the most cases at the moment. Whether the mortality rate is the same in other countries remains to be seen. Certain people are more at risk. The elderly, but generally, the older you are, the more you are at risk. But also people with impaired immunity. Heavy smoking seems a contributing factor, especially in China where it is common practice among the male population, and not too surprising considering COVID19 causes pneumonia. Obesity is more prevalent in western countries, and it may also play a contributing factor, but that remains to be seen.

If everyone went their usual business, it spread exponentially, affecting most of the world population; and we'd see a relatively high numbers of deaths as well. Granted, it would take a couple of months, but it will get there eventually.

Ideally everyone stayed at home and isolated themselves for two to three weeks. Then the virus wouldn't be able to spread, and once everyone is recovered, we could go on our merry business. It's not possible unfortunately, but most of Europe seems to go in lockdown, so that will prevent the spreading to some degree I'd hope.

Now, whilst even a mortality rate of 1 or 2 percent is nothing to scoff at, the biggest problem is hospitalisation. And that's currently the biggest problem in Italy for example. 10-15% of people tested positive need to be hospitalised. But no hospital is prepared for such a large amount of people. @Ralizah posted a few anecdotes today, and it shows the gravity of the situation. Worst case people are send home because their chances of survival are the lowest and they simply don't have the space to take everyone in. Hospital staff may get tested positive, but are expected to keep working because they can't afford anyone to leave at the moment. And that's the biggest issue we're facing I think. Once a sizable portion of the population becomes affected, crowded hospitals may prevent people from getting the care they need.

https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-20...
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

But wouldn't healthcare systems adapt to the situation by prioritising other cases? When emergency services turn up to a big incident, they don't just down tools because they can't save everybody, they triage.

I'm yet to hear of an otherwise healthy person becoming a victim (beyond the mild illness) of this. Society doesn't have to collapse just because vulnerable people start getting hit harder. That would be ****ing nonsensical.

Edit: @Octane has just demonstrated my point. Worst cases are getting turned away from hospitals - that is a sensible approach, and it's happening. It's not devaluing people, it's not dehumanising people, it's just prioritising.