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Topic: Coronavirus outbreak

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Heavyarms55

@NEStalgia You're absolutely right that mutations tend to make viruses less deadly because killing off the host is counter productive - but mutations are effectively random. Not planned out or anything. So it is entirely possible that the strain in Italy is more lethal.

Your last point about something in Italy potentially pushing it toward the more dangerous mode makes sense. There could be environmental factors that trigger it. Perhaps something in the air or water, or the weather or the presence or lack of some chemical or other microorganism.

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HobbitGamer

@Heavyarms55 Italy also had a crush against their healthcare ability, so the lethality was increased for cases that required more acute care. They began being forced to triage and turn away.

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Heavyarms55

@HobbitGamer So Italy is a glimpse of what happens when the system is overwhelmed then? Considering how much smaller Italy's population is compared to the US, that's frightening.

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ThanosReXXX

@RR529 Well, I'm not calculating anything, I just posted a website that keeps tabs of the actual numbers, on a daily basis. I would think that you can't get more accurate numbers than that. And seeing as this site gets its numbers from all the official instances worldwide, I doubt that they would be wrong. And their numbers are updated every day, at the exact same time.

Mind you: you do need to see the numbers on that site in the right context. The 16% is based on the confirmed cases of deceased and cured, and the 4% also mentioned is based upon cases still in process of either getting better or possibly dying, and in the first category, the total number of people is obviously not the same, compared to the second category, so it's a bit more complicated than that, but it's definitely not just 2 to 4 percent in total on a worldwide scale. And the death rate in Italy and now Spain is still rising at an alarming rate, with hundreds of new victims on a daily basis.

And now it has started to seriously affect India, and probably the directly surrounding countries. Seeing as those countries are already overcrowded, much like China, and hygiene also isn't much of a first priority over there, I'm suspecting that at the very least, we're looking at millions of newly infected within months. They won't all die, but I have a feeling that it's going to be pretty serious for a lot of them.

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JaxonH

Man... I’ve just got a bad feeling about all this.

And I’m not a doom and gloom kinda guy, but I’m just not seeing how this ends well in any scenario. The only way to stop the virus is full lockdown for 1 to 2 months (they say that 14 days of a full lockdown would actually do it but that’s in theory, if every single person in the country was fully isolated and every single person who developed symptoms during the two weeks stayed quarantined afterwards... and that will simply never happen in reality). Which means you would need a good 60 days to properly weed it out. And 60 days will send the economy into Depression territory. Don’t lock down for 60 days and you won’t stop the virus. You can gradually wear it out via caution as the country operates on high alert status, and hope for the best in the warmer summer months, but it’ll resurface in the fall/winter during flu season. And we still won’t have a vaccine. Which means we’ll have to go into high alert status all over again and do this all over again. Meanwhile certain sectors of the economy will be out of business for like, a year. And if they couldn’t stay in the black for two weeks without struggling how are they going to make it for 12 months?

I read in the bill they were pushing for the digital dollar. I knew that was coming. Actually told one of my friends they’d use this to advocate for Fedcoin hours before the news broke. I don’t think it’ll make it into the final bill but the simple fact they’re pushing for it means it’s time is near. And that is a real danger because once a digital dollar is established they will subsequently eradicate cash over a time span of several years, perhaps even faster than that if they argue that physical money can transmit the virus.

And if we go full digital there’s nothing stopping them from implementing negative interest rates. I’m not sure how much people know about negative interest rates but that’s a rabbit hole we will never climb out of. Ever. We’re already at zero. They’ve got nowhere else to go. If they implement negative interest rates now people will just pull their money out of their bank accounts and hold cash. And that’s the last thing they want to see happen. Because people spend less when they don’t have immediate access to their money on a debit card, which will only drag on the economy even more. They need that digital dollar if they want to get the full effect of negative rates. This isn’t the last we’ve heard of it. In fact they’ll probably propose it again in the next stimulus bill (oh you thought this was it? Heh... they are just getting started). I don’t know how long it’s going to take before the people realize their currency has been inflated away- usually there’s a substantial delay between the printing of money and the erosion of dollar value. But once this catches up to us your dollars are going to be worth half what they’re worth now. Maybe even less depending on how much they print. We’re still waiting to see the effects of QE1, QE2 and QE3 over the last decade. And the only reason it hasn’t eroded the dollar value is because deflation has been so prevalent. No matter how much they print they just can’t seem to increase the velocity of money enough. They keep needing to print more and more and they keep getting smaller and smaller effects in return.

Time to buy more gold (which, btw, is at $1640/oz, up nearly 10% this year, while everything else is down 25%). There’s a shortage right now. Physical Gold and silver is sold out everywhere. All the online bouillon dealers are selling what little they have for WAAAAY over Spot price, and with 3 week delays. There’s a complete detachment of the paper market from the physical market. People are scrambling to buy gold hand over fist.

Edited on by JaxonH

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ThanosReXXX

@NEStalgia Your theory does not explain what is now happening in Spain, which is pretty much the same as what has happened, and is STILL happening, in Italy. It's predominantly the old and weak dying. I'd say the explanation could be far simpler than that: with a regular flu, the same would apply. The old and already weak or sickly would run the biggest risk, and might ultimately get a lung infection, pneumonia or any other respiratory disease, whereas most other people would at most get seriously sick and bed-ridden for a week or two, and then simply recover.

Seeing as COVID-19 is still a relatively new Corona virus, the immune system simply doesn't know how to handle it yet, and as such, it spreads faster and attacks seem more violent/lethal, even though the virus itself isn't supposed to be more deadly, in and of itself. In a year or so, we'll have the antibiotics to treat the symptoms, and mitigate the disease, but for now, we've got to get through the first wave of it.

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NEStalgia

@Heavyarms55 also, diets. pH has an effect on surfaces. Base (alkalines) break down the protein shell of the organism. Acids act as containment. Not sure what effect that does or doesn't have inside a host, but it's why soap (a base solution) is effective (it's not just washing away the germs, it's actually bursting them) - it's certainly conceivable a person's internal pH, influenced by diet (or water) has an effect. Or local water activity levels influence it. It's worse in the temperate North than the hot South. So far that indicated temperature sensitivity (like most Corona/colds) or humidity sensitivity (like influenza), but it could be something more to the locations.

@ThanosReXXX the deceased and cured closed cases mostly only count critical cases that warranted hospitalization to begin with, not necessarily a realistic estimate of all cases. I presume the 4% is coming from a model of that now realistic overall view.

@jaxonh screw the gold, if you find a good cyanide tablet dealer, buy in bulk, I'll wholesale for you. Toilet paper will look unwanted compared to that demand surge. Id rather go live in the 1930s. Waay better. I'm the biggest cynic around. Even i never pictured bad would get this bad this soon. No I thought a nice quaint world war or something first would fix things. But no, they had to let nature do it.... I buy almost everything online... But i still refuse to live in a cashless world. I'll take my chances with the plague first. It's a whole lot less lethal even if it were 16%.

@ThanosReXXX 40% of the deaths have supposedly been under 50's. It's not just the old and weak. Which is comforting in a way. If it were so radically wiping out a eugenically desirable population so clearly, I'd be very convinced this thing was purposefully designed.

NEStalgia

Heavyarms55

@NEStalgia There seems to be this belief that weather has a big impact on the virus and that might be the case, but I'm not convinced. The virus is still hitting in places in the middle east, the American south and southwest, Australia and the like. It's warming up in the northern hemisphere. But it's cooling down in the southern hemisphere.

And no slight intended, but many places in the southern hemisphere are not as well equipped to deal with major viral outbreaks.

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NEStalgia

@Heavyarms55 yeah i was going to comment a week ago that when it hits India it's going to so damage that makes China and Italy seem tame. It's an absurdly dense, unrealistically populated, and pretty poor country. There's no good outcome there. The only "good" there is: their existence needed a population reduction one way or another, and if it wasn't this, there was a famine/food shortage coming within 35 years. Overpopulation is always, always, always a disaster in the waiting. I feel cheap having said that for years and here it is. Then again bill Gates told the world it wasn't prepared for a pandemic 5 years ago and nobody listened to him either....

It still hits the southern areas but generally not as hard. But that was a hypothesis based on: all of the other Coronas are heat sensitive and remit. Or if it's more like influenza, that's humidity sensitive and remits. But it's unknown is that applies here. The lower impact on equatorial areas suggests it might be. But that may not pan out.

NEStalgia

Heavyarms55

@NEStalgia If it hits India, I think you're right. We'll be looking at a potential disaster the likes of which none of us have seen in our lifetimes.

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HobbitGamer

@Heavyarms55 Yes, Italy is a good example of an overwhelmed medical system. But there are caveats; Italian hospitals are aged and already under equipped.
The whole reason places have gone into a lockdown status of some sort isn’t to starve the outbreak of infection vectors, it’s to slow the potential crush against the finite number of acute care resources. Think of it as a water spigot you can’t turn off, but you can adjust the outflow. You’re going to get wet, but you’ll try to keep the flow at a pace equal to your ability to use a mop.

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JoeDiddley

I don’t usually comment on personal matters here...

I’m in the UK and the change lead for 15 government departments hr & finance systems & services. It’s been really busy getting the systems updated to report and pay correctly for 1/2 million government employees for if they are ill/isolating/caring for dependents. Whilst also trying to prioritise what’s on the books whilst offices are closing.

Also my Grandad (93) has tested positive and we’ve been told to expect him to pass away today. I’m on the other side of the country. Hanging by the phone.

Edited on by JoeDiddley

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Zuljaras

@JoeDiddley That is so sad to hear. Here we are limiting our contacts, especially with elders just to protect them. Many people do not care much about that and think that the virus is a hoax!

Again sorry to hear about your grandad.

Zuljaras

JoeDiddley

@Zuljaras thanks! His care home was already in lockdown due to norovirus before the coronavirus restrictions here came in, so a surprise he wasn’t safer than most.

Edited on by JoeDiddley

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HobbitGamer

@JoeDiddley My sympathy for that news

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ThanosReXXX

@NEStalgia No, they're two separate numbers. The 4% is of cases still ongoing, the other percentage is of confirmed deaths so far vs confirmed recovered persons so far. As I mentioned earlier, these are the actual figures, updated daily. Theoretically, you could add these stats up, and come to some average number, but the problem with that is that the left stat on that page doesn't have conclusive numbers yet, seeing as it's about newly infected, so that number isn't final for now.

As for the ages of the diseased: those are still mostly elderly, or people with some kind of lesser defense due to any other illnesses, that weaken their immune system. Younger people do get infected and go through the symptoms, and some die, but most that die are still in the aforementioned categories.

So, I don't know where you're looking, but the news we're getting over here from both European countries and Asian countries is predominantly about the old and weaker part of society. In Spain as well. It was all over the news yesterday. So, I'm kind of beginning to wonder how different the news is in various countries, because the numbers are just that: the numbers. There can be no differences, unless you're looking at numbers per country/region, which by the way, I also linked to.

For example, if I look at the local numbers on the news here, then there's only a couple of people in their 50s that passed away, but the rest of the diseased are all ages 70 and up. Same in Italy, same in Spain. But I wouldn't call those people individuals "that warranted hospitalization to begin with". Just because they're older, doesn't automatically mean they need to be hospitalized from the get go. If we already had a vaccine, I'd dare to say that a reasonable percentage of the elderly would survive as well, but as it stands, we just don't have anything yet, so unfortunately, all we can do is sit and wait, and hope that we don't get infected, or if we do, that we get through it.

Agreed on India, though. That's probably going to be disastrous. And the country is already starting to take rather weird measures. Yesterday, on the news, they showed police in various cities there beating up or punishing people for not wearing face masks, or not listening. They even made them do push ups. I was only half listening, so what that was about, no idea...

@JoeDidley My sympathies, and I wish you strength in the period to come.

Edited on by ThanosReXXX

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Anti-Matter

A little hope to halt the Corona virus pandemic.

@JoeDiddley
I'm sorry to hear your situation right now.

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JoeM103

@JoeDiddley Big love bro. Cant imagine how you are feeling.

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Fritz_

Into day three of the UK's lockdown Sadly the lockdown has shown up a lot of scummy companies for what they really are, with clothes/sports shops deeming themselves to be essential, hotels kicking people out without warning, companies not paying staff members etc. Sad to see.

Edited on by Fritz_

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JoeDiddley

Thanks everyone, my Mum says he’s been given medication to make him more comfortable. She’s able to visit with a mask etc. so at least he’s not alone. I hear a lot of people in this situation are, understandably

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