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Topic: Survey for pokemon breeders

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Amino

To make a long story short, I'm doing a project for my statistics class and for our topic, my partner and I decided to test the effectiveness of the masuda method.

Obviously we need data, so that's where you come in. All I'm asking is for you to tell me how many eggs it took you to hatch a shiny, and whether it was with or without the masuda method. I'd appreciate if you included the game you hatched them in as well. Even if you can't remember the exact number of eggs, the amount of boxes it took is just fine too. We are not including the effects of the shiny charm, so if you used it then unfortunately it doesn't count.

You can include any number of attempts as long as they were successful in hatching a shiny. Thank you for your contribution to science!

Amino

Araquanid

1/1365 is the offical rate with masuda method in gen 6. This has already been confirmed and the data in the games code shows this.

With shiny charm.. the offical rate is 1/1024.. smogon predicts it's 1/412 or around there based on their experiments but in depth research in the games code reveals it's 1/1024 (actually just read that..)

Edited on by Araquanid

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Prof_Clayton

Stomatopod17 wrote:

1/1365 is the offical rate with masuda method in gen 6. This has already been confirmed and the data in the games code shows this.

With shiny charm.. the offical rate is 1/1024.. smogon predicts it's 1/412 or around there based on their experiments but in depth research in the games code reveals it's 1/1024 (actually just read that..)

I seriously doubt the second one... I've found the Smogon shiny rate to be spot on. I even contributed to the research. And I doubt I'm just lucky, I have over 15 shinies bred this way, averaging around 450 eggs each.
I believe the 1/1024 is the Masuda method, without the Shiny Charm, if memory serves.

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Araquanid

Prof_Clayton wrote:

Stomatopod17 wrote:

1/1365 is the offical rate with masuda method in gen 6. This has already been confirmed and the data in the games code shows this.

With shiny charm.. the offical rate is 1/1024.. smogon predicts it's 1/412 or around there based on their experiments but in depth research in the games code reveals it's 1/1024 (actually just read that..)

I seriously doubt the second one... I've found the Smogon shiny rate to be spot on. I even contributed to the research. And I doubt I'm just lucky, I have over 15 shinies bred this way, averaging around 450 eggs each.
I believe the 1/1024 is the Masuda method, without the Shiny Charm, if memory serves.

Idk, I kinda can say the same as usually when shiny breeding I aim for hatching atleast 400 eggs as a range.. and usually 100% of the time I see a shiny pop out whether its soon or later.

Estimated results with shiny charm.

Honedge-30-40 eggs
Joltik-30-40 eggs
nincada-300-400 eggs
spewpa-wasn't keeping track, just random
Torchic-Wasn't keeping track.. again random
Eevee-350-400 eggs (I was trying to hatch a shiny hydregion.. then moved on to scolipede half way through, and then got tired and gave up.. and ended up with a 31/31/x/x/x/31 modest eevee shiny -.-)
Hawlucha-Random.. but I'd say 30-60ish eggs after the eevee.

Right now going for a mawile and I hatched atleast a good 350 so far.. and nothing yet.

But from both sources being serebii, and the oh so reliable bulbapedia both their results say 1/1024 with shiny charm.. which is eight times more likely than normal.

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MixMasterMudkip

Prof_Clayton wrote:

Stomatopod17 wrote:

1/1365 is the offical rate with masuda method in gen 6. This has already been confirmed and the data in the games code shows this.

With shiny charm.. the offical rate is 1/1024.. smogon predicts it's 1/412 or around there based on their experiments but in depth research in the games code reveals it's 1/1024 (actually just read that..)

I seriously doubt the second one... I've found the Smogon shiny rate to be spot on. I even contributed to the research. And I doubt I'm just lucky, I have over 15 shinies bred this way, averaging around 450 eggs each.
I believe the 1/1024 is the Masuda method, without the Shiny Charm, if memory serves.

I think 1/1024 and 1/412 are both technically correct. 1/1024 is going more for every single egg, while 1/412 is more for the total amount of eggs. As in, at least 1 out of your 400 or so eggs will most likely be shiny, but with no guarantee. 1/1024 is like, this certain egg has a 1/1024 chance of being that 1/412.

Anyway, to the question at hand. While 1/1365 and 1/1024 are what is coded into the game. I think the data you're looking for is the 1/400 range. Personally, I've gotten very few shines through Masuda method though, and haven't counted when I have. So, as stated by @Prof_Clayton I think Smogon is a pretty reliable source for this. If you want data from real people rather then in game data make a post in the Smogon forums (If you haven't already.) There should definitely be more people who have this data on hand compared to here.

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Araquanid

Hatched 500 mawile with a foreign ditto and shiny charm, nothing..

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BadKitty

Try doing your own homework/research.
Today's generation is just a shameful disgrace. :/

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Araquanid

I finally hatched my shiny mawile at around 800 eggs.

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SkywardLink98

BadKitty wrote:

Try doing your own homework/research.
Today's generation is just a shameful disgrace. :/

You would want him to have to hatch an insane amount of shinies? Do you know how long that would take?

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